Markets can count wallets. They still cannot tell you how many people are speaking.
According to Reuters, midterm prediction-market volume has already passed the entire 2024 congressional cycle.
But a relatively small group of wallets accounts for most of the trading.
Prediction markets were built to aggregate human judgment. If the market is meant to reflect public judgment, shouldn’t it know how many people are speaking?
Humanode gives builders a way to separate capital concentration from participant count. Read the full piece:
https://blog.humanode.io/what-prediction-market-builders-are-missing-about-sybils/
Humanode
What prediction market builders are missing about Sybils
There was a day in late 2025 when the numbers on prediction markets stopped feeling like probabilities and started feeling like predictions without evidence. You’d watch a contract on a major election or a macro outcome barely trade, and before the underlying…
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