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Fundamental Analysis (Long term): post #58989 — TG.ME

Fundamental Analysis (Long term)@fundamental3 · 45K subscribers Open in TelegramOpen

morepen

t.me/fundamental3/58989

September 4, 2026 1.9K 12

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MOREPEN LABORATORIES | FROM API MANUFACTURER TO GLOBAL CDMO + HEALTHCARE PLATFORM CURRENT BUSINESS - Morepen is traditionally known for API manufacturing, with products such as Loratadine, Montelukast, Atorvastatin and other specialised APIs. - The business is now expanding across multiple healthcare verticals: - APIs / Global Generics - CDMO / Contract Manufacturing - Domestic Formulations - Medical Devices & Diagnostics - Global Markets - Longer-term optionality includes complex molecules and next-generation manufacturing opportunities. THE TRANSFORMATION STORY - The potential re-rating is not simply about higher API sales. - The larger opportunity is moving up the pharmaceutical value chain. - API business: large-scale manufacturing, exports and global customers. - Formulations: brands, distribution and domestic healthcare. - Medical devices: installed base, consumables and recurring demand. - If successfully executed, Morepen could evolve from an API manufacturer into a diversified pharmaceutical and healthcare platform. CDMO — THE NEXT MAJOR GROWTH ENGINE - FY27 could become an inflection year for the CDMO business. - Secured a ₹825 Cr multi-year CDMO mandate from a global pharma major. - ₹58 Cr of commercial dispatches already completed in Q1 FY27. - Management guides for ~₹225 Cr supplies in Q2 FY27. - CDMO could contribute 50%+ of total revenue by Q3–Q4 FY27. - The program could potentially add ~50–60% to the existing core API business. WHY CDMO MATTERS - Moves the company from selling individual APIs toward higher-value contract manufacturing. - Large pharma relationships can create recurring commercial volumes after successful validation. - Revenue progression should follow: - Customer onboarding - Product validation - Commercial manufacturing - Scale-up - The key question is now execution speed rather than order-book availability. WHAT TO WATCH - Conversion of the ₹825 Cr mandate into actual recurring revenue. - Q2 supplies versus the ~₹225 Cr management target. - CDMO contribution reaching 50%+ of revenue. - Ability to scale manufacturing without significant margin dilution. - Further customer additions and movement toward complex molecules. KEY TAKEAWAY Morepen's CDMO ramp could shift the company from an API-led business toward a higher-value global pharma platform. Stock Stats | Stock info | Infographics @Stockinfo333 2.3K·Sep 4

morepen 1.9K·Sep 4

AKSHAR CHEM | CHINA SUPPLY DISRUPTION + SILICA EXPANSION WHAT IS DRIVING THE STOCK - Stock hit a fresh all-time high of ₹407. - Q1 FY27 PAT surged to ₹15.2 Cr from just ₹0.7 Cr YoY. - H-Acid prices reportedly jumped from ~CNY45,000/t to ~CNY120,000/t following Chinese production disruptions. - AksharChem has spare capacity in H-Acid and Vinyl Sulphone, allowing higher realisations without immediate major capex. SECOND — AND MORE STRUCTURAL — TRIGGER - Precipitated silica capacity expanded 50% to 18,000 MTPA. - Tyre makers are increasingly adopting silica-based “green tyres”. - China+1 sourcing could create a longer-term demand opportunity. - Unlike the H-Acid opportunity, silica could potentially become a more durable growth engine. BUSINESS STRENGTHS - 7.93 MWp + 2.4 MWp captive solar capacity. - ~57% revenue from exports across 30+ countries. - Added customers across Europe, Vietnam, Turkey, Taiwan and South Korea. - ~82% repeat business indicates strong customer relationships. THE BIG DEBATE — CYCLICAL OR STRUCTURAL? - Q1 operating margin reached ~16%, and the market is increasingly pricing in sustained improvement. - H-Acid price spikes can materially boost earnings if Chinese supply remains constrained. - But if Chinese production normalises and H-Acid prices fall, the earnings benefit could reverse quickly. - The silica expansion provides a potential structural offset to this cyclicality. VALUATION / RISK - At ₹407, the stock trades at ~26x earnings. - FY26 ROCE was only ~0.2%, highlighting how sharply the market is looking through historical profitability. - At an all-time high, the margin of safety is limited. - The key question is whether current earnings are a temporary chemical upcycle or the beginning of a sustainable recovery. KEY MONITORABLES - H-Acid pricing and Chinese supply situation. - Sustainability of ~16% operating margins. - Utilisation and realisations from spare H-Acid/Vinyl Sulphone capacity. - Ramp-up of 18,000 MTPA precipitated silica capacity. - New customer additions and repeat-order momentum. KEY TAKEAWAY H-Acid is the near-term earnings trigger, while silica could determine whether the recovery becomes structural. 2.2K·Sep 4 Almost every electric motor and generator on earth needs a lamination stack. Few outside the industry have heard of the company that makes most of them in India. That company has spent the last 4-5 years quietly converting itself from a single-product stamper into a vertically integrated engineering platform - adding precision machining, iron castings, and full sub-assembly capability through two external acquisitions and two group entity consolidations between FY23 and FY25. It supplies traction motor cores to both Wabtec and Alstom - Both are the only primary OEMs for Indian Railway locomotive manufacturing tenders. Whoever wins the tender, the cores come from the same place. With Cummins, it is the anchor vendor for laminations used in data centre DG set stators and rotors. One of India’s leading manufacturers and exporters of electrical steel laminations, with capacity at six plants across Telangana, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. That company is Pitti Engineering Ltd - A Hyderabad-based electrical steel lamination manufacturer founded in 1983, and now an integrated platform spanning stamping, machining, casting, and sub-assembly under a single P&L. 1.9K·Sep 4

Textiles Value Chain , we are seeing profit pools emerge on both Spinners and Garmenting , especially UK facing source: Nuvama Swing trading | Positional Trading @Wealthcreator7 2.1K·Sep 4

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