From Scale Advantage to Technology Lead: China’s Battery Supply Chain and the Case for Exposure
——————————————————
• The divergence is already visible in reported earnings: Among the top ten holdings of the ChinaAMC CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF (515030.SH), eight delivered year-on-year growth in Q1 2026 recurring net profit, together accounting for roughly 36% of fund weight. Only two — the vehicle OEM and motor control names, some 15% of weight — declined. CATL and EVE Energy grew 53% and 36% respectively, without the benefit of a depressed base.
• The divergence has an identifiable mechanism: Earnings and share prices at the vehicle OEM and motor control names fell together, directly dragging the index. At the same time, the market applied a discount to the entire sector based on a domestic macro narrative centred on autos and property, while demand for batteries and materials had already rotated toward storage and exports.
• Storage demand now has an independent driver: Compute–power coordination was written into the Government Work Report and the 15th Five-Year Plan outline for the first time. Data centre storage battery shipments are forecast to rise from roughly 10GWh in 2024 to around 300GWh by 2030, giving the battery layer a second demand curve that does not depend on EV penetration.
• Sodium-ion batteries reinforce rather than dilute the leaders: Industrialisation of sodium-ion technology is being led by CATL and EVE Energy themselves. Share gains occur among the same group of companies within the cell layer, so this does not redistribute profit away from incumbents.
• Valuation and target level: Applying a fair P/E of 22x to forecast 2028 EPS of RMB 4.23 gives a scenario target level of approximately 5,175 points for the CSI All-Share New Energy Vehicle Index, implying roughly 31% three-year potential upside from the 12 August 2026 close of 3,959. This calculation excludes any valuation uplift from solid-state battery commercialisation.
• 美伊停火谈判已经破裂，即使达成解决方案，也无法解决已经处于历史高位的柴油炼油利润。
• 食品和存储芯片价格正在分别上涨，增加了与战争无关的通胀压力。
• 美联储自己的通胀指标仍高于目标，债券市场正在计入无论美联储政策如何都将持续存在的压力。
• 政府借贷和人工智能基础设施支出正在争夺相同的资本，这使得美国、日本和德国的收益率都达到了数十年来的最高水平。
• 缩短债券久期，并青睐亚洲而非美国市场中廉价且盈利的股票，因为这种结构性压力短期内不太可能缓解。
• 美國與伊朗的停火談判已告破裂，即使達成協議也無法解決已處於歷史新高的柴油煉油利潤。
• 食品和記憶晶片價格分別上漲，增加了與戰爭無關的通脹壓力。
• 聯準會(Fed)自身的通膨指標仍高於目標，且債券市場正在預期持續的壓力，無論聯準會(Fed)政策如何。
• 政府借貸和人工智慧(AI)基礎設施支出正在爭奪相同的資本，將美國、日本和德國的殖利率推升至數十年來新高。
• 縮短債券存續期，並偏好亞洲而非美國的廉價且獲利豐厚的股票，因為這種結構性壓力短期內不太可能緩解。
📖: Read the full article here
💡: ChinaAMC CSI New En Car Ind ETF
