Back in the 1880s, economist George Tritch created a simple but powerful market-cycle model called “Periods When to Make Money.”Surprisingly, it still mirrors the behavior of modern markets: stocks, indices, commodities, and even crypto.
He described three repeating phases:
A - Panic & sharp reversals (start of major crises)
B - Overheated peaks (best time to take profit)
C - Depressed prices & accumulation (best time to buy)
Why this matters now:This chart highlights long-term cycles of growth and crises, including the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, the 2008 crash, and the COVID downturn.
Across cycles, the same pattern repeats:
- Panic leads to accumulation phases (C)
- Accumulation turns into strong rallies (B)
- Euphoria eventually triggers reversals (A)
- Different assets behave differently, but investor psychology rarely changes.
Where are we now?
The chart suggests we’ve been in a strong growth phase, with US indices, stocks, and crypto hitting new ATH.
This implies that the period from 2026 to 2032 could bring a more significant correction cycle.
Important note:This model isn’t a strict or perfectly accurate forecast.
However, it can serve as a useful guide for determining when to optimize profits and when to make long-term investments during deep value phases.
