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Execute Wise Bro: post #5963 — TG.ME

Execute Wise Bro@executewisebro · 1.5K subscribers Open in TelegramOpen

t.me/executewisebro/5963

July 19, 2026 206 2

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Kama uko Arusha Book sit yako mapema 59·Aug 30 Channel name was changed to «Execute Wise Bro»Aug 29 Channel photo updatedAug 29 Kama Unatrade week ni Vyema unajua haya kwanza Lasivyo italipa maumivu yake Miezi miwili iliyopita, soko lilikuwa na hofu. Fed ilikuwa ikizungumzia kuongeza viwango vya riba. Maafisa watatu wa Feds walipiga kura kuunga mkono ongezeko hilo. Kila mtu aliamini kuwa viwango vya juu vya riba vilikuwa vinakuja. Kwa hiyo, Gold ililisell hadi kushuka karibu $4,000, wakati Dollar ilipanda hadi $1.02. Lakini mwezi huu,Kila kitu kilibadilika. Tarehe 7 Agosti, ripoti ya ajira za Marekani ilitoka. Makadirio yalikuwa ajira 85,000, lakini matokeo yakaja negative 23,000 tu—upungufu wa zaidi ya ajira 100,000 dhidi ya matarajio. Uchumi haukuwa tu unakua taratibu. Ulikuwa unapoteza ajira. Na kupotea kwa ajira kulimaanisha Fed haikuwa tena na sababu kubwa ya kuongeza viwango vya riba. Ghafla, simulizi lote la soko likabadilika. Uwezekano wa soko kutarajia kushuka kwa viwango vya riba ulitoka karibu 82% hadi 30%, na kila mtu akaanza kuingia upande huo. Gold ikapanda 5% ndani ya wiki moja, kurudi karibu $4,600. Dollar ikaanza kushuka. Halafu wiki iliyopita, Treasury ikaongeza mara mbili ununuzi wake wa bonds za muda mrefu, wakati huo huo deni la Marekani likivuka $40 trillion. Kila mtu akaonekana kuwa upande mmoja wa boti. Na hapo ndipo tulipo sasa. Jumatano — saa 3:30 alasiri kwa muda wa Tanzania PCE ndiyo itakuwa kwenye macho ya wengi. Makadirio ni 0.2%, wakati mwezi uliopita ilikuwa 0.1%. Lakini Ijumaa ndiyo siku ambayo kila mtu anaifuatilia. Saa 5:00 Jioni — Kevin Watts atazungumza Jackson Hall. Hii itakuwa hotuba yake ya kwanza kabisa kama Mwenyekiti wa Fed. Na hii ndiyo siku ambayo inaweza kuamua nani alikuwa sahihi. Kuna scenarios tatu: 1. Hasemi kitu kipya. 69% ya fund managers wanatarajia scenario hii. Kutakuwa na movement ndogo kwenye market, halafu kila kitu kitatulia. Kwa sababu kila mtu tayari alikuwa sahihi. 2. Anasema inflation bado iko juu sana. Hapa kila mtu atakuwa amekosea kwa wakati mmoja. Fedha zote zilizoingia kwenye Gold mwezi huu zitaanza kutoka kwa kasi. Gold itashuka. Nasdaq itashuka. Dollar itapanda. Hii ndiyo siku ambayo positions nyingi zinaweza kulazimika kufungwa. 3. Anasema yuko comfortable na kiwango cha inflation. Ni 7% tu wanaotarajia scenario hii. Gold ↑ Nasdaq ↑ Dollar ↓ Na simulizi la sasa litaendelea. Lakini kuna kitu ambacho watu wengi watakikosa. Gold haikupanda wiki iliyopita kwa sababu ya Fed pekee. Ilipanda pia kwa sababu ya Treasury na deni la Marekani lililovuka $40 trillion. Kwa hiyo, kama ataonekana kuwa na wasiwasi siku ya Ijumaa, Gold bado huenda isishuke kwa kiwango kikubwa kama wengi wanavyotarajia. Unaweza kufikiri chart yako imeharibika... Lakini haijaharibika. Unatazama stories mbili tofauti ndani ya bei moja ya Gold. Nitapost update nyingine kabla ya PCE siku ya Jumatano—kuhusu mabadiliko yanayotokea ndani ya wiki na kile ambacho tayari kimewekwa kwenye bei ya market. Kama unatrade siku ya Jackson Hall, follow ili usiingie market ukiwa hujui kinachoendelea. 121·Aug 23

https://ma.valetax.com/p/5557391 118·Aug 21

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