House prices and fertility
No, rising house prices are not the driver of sharp fertility declines. The evidence shows only modest, mixed effects that cannot explain the large drops observed in places like Canada. What the Research Actually Shows: A well-known study by Dettling and Kearney (2014) found that rising house prices have opposing effects: they slightly increase fertility among homeowners (via a “home equity” or wealth effect) and slightly decrease it among renters (via a price effect). At average U.S. homeownership rates, the net effect was a small increase in fertility. This pattern has held up in other countries. For example, Daysal et al. (2021) and related work confirm similar homeowner/renter dynamics in Denmark and elsewhere. Clark (2012) found that expensive housing markets are associated with a modest delay in age at first birth (roughly 3–4 years after controls), but the overall…
https://lemire.me/blog/2026/04/30/house-prices-and-fertility/
April 30, 2026 403 1
