Conviction isn't something you feel. It's something you assemble
Here's the difference in practice:
A feeling says "this is going to run." A thesis says "this runs if X happens, because Y, and I'll know I'm wrong when Z"
One of those survives a red week. The other one is just enthusiasm with money attached
The test I use before entering anything: can I state the thesis in one sentence, name the specific thing that would break it, and explain why the market hasn't priced it yet?
If I can't answer all three, I don't have conviction. I have interest. Those deserve very different position sizes
Most people find out which one they had only after the drawdown. Cheaper to find out before
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6August 28, 2026 2.5K 4