The past three days of price action on $BTC have been quite literally unprecedented. This crazy breakout rally feels very similar to the first leg up in 2023 that took us out of the bear market, and I will 100% believe this move to be the same if I see ONE specific move in price action.
It’s safe to assume some sort of mean reversion is around the corner, with the 1D RSI being unbelievably overextended. But a pullback here might actually be the most bullish move possible.
If we come back down to $71k-$70k to retest the 1D 200EMA and see a strong bounce, I will 100% believe that the bull market is back, and I’ll position myself to take advantage of the gains to come over the next 2-3 years.
Likewise, if we don’t see a pullback here and continue to rally above $83k, which is our prior lower high, then that will also be enough for me to 100% believe the bull market is back.
But if we see a pullback that results in a BREAKDOWN of the 1D 200EMA, then the possibility of the bear market still not being quite over does once again increase.
With such volatility in these markets, it’s very important to understand that macro probabilities are constantly shifting, and it’s your responsibility to be objective in your market outlook and not become married to your base case. You must be able to adapt in real time to these markets.
Keep a VERY CLOSE EYE on price action this weekend. These might be the most important times in the markets since we saw the top. Make sure you are PAYING ATTENTION!
