Related Reading Bitcoin’s ETF rebound just lost 38% of its gains in four sessions as BTC fell below $63,000 Glassnode also reported coins moving off exchanges and accumulation scores at or above neutral across all six wallet-size cohorts. Together, those observations show market participation broadening beyond the initial short-covering event, although they do not convert the earlier stress model into a timing signal.
Older coins were still moving as wallets accumulated The later accumulation readings leave one on-chain warning unresolved. VanEck reported that supply held for more than one year fell by 356,534 BTC over 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of circulating supply.
VanEck said the decline could reflect wallet churn or migration as well as distribution by older holders. Separating those possibilities required an age-band split of exchange inflows that the report did not yet provide.
Related Reading Bitcoin’s bottom needs long-term holders to stop losing $280M a day Glassnode’s wallet-size accumulation score measures a different dimension. Small and large balance cohorts can accumulate while the share of coins held longer than one year falls, so the later cohort data do not prove that VanEck’s long-term-holder reading reversed.
The combined evidence ultimately points to a staged recovery: capitulation conditions were broad, the initial rally cleared bearish positioning, and ETF flows plus wallet accumulation later added support.
VanEck’s strongest signal clusters still lagged Bitcoin’s baseline inside six months, while the one-year advantage came from overlapping observations. The recovery case rests on what the market did after the snapshot, not on a definitive 12-signal bottom call.
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https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-bottom-signal-is-flashing-but-six-months-of-data-shows-a-trap-waiting-for-early-buyers/
August 27, 2026 3
