Total stablecoin market capitalization sits near $303.7 billion, up $2.8 billion over the past week even though its 30-day growth remains modest. Separate data from NYDIG shows stablecoin supply rose $1.25 billion during the rally, mostly from USDC, suggesting liquidity on trading venues improved faster than broader offshore participation.
Related Reading Why Bitcoin’s $80,000 rally just flipped from short squeeze to long squeeze The next test is a real confluence zone Between roughly $81,000 and $86,000, a self-custody cost-basis shelf, a dealer gamma flip near $82,300, surviving short-liquidation levels, and concentrated long-term-holder supply all sit close together.
Glassnode's confirmation level for a genuine breakout is a settled close above $83,300, with ETF intake still holding.
On the downside, the short-term-holder cost basis sits near $70,000, with a firmer floor around $62,000 to $65,000. A retreat back to Bitcoin's original squeeze level near $62,900 would, in Glassnode's own words, unwind the entire episode.
Theo CIO Iggy Ioppe said:
“Nothing in this number forces a hike, and nothing in it delivers a cut.”
He argued that the policy stance stays easier than current inflation and labor data would justify, and has for months. Every FOMC meeting that passes without action functions as easing by default, a structural support under risk assets that does not depend on the Fed turning outright dovish.
Ioppe said Bitcoin “remains more contained than the return of institutional flows would suggest,” a gap he treats as a timing issue while the underlying thesis stays intact.
Whether Friday confirms the bid or exposes it Roughly 81,700 Bitcoin options worth $6.44 billion expire on Deribit Friday at 08:00 UTC, with calls outnumbering puts 44,639 contracts to 37,061 and notable call concentrations at the $75,000 and $80,000 strikes.
Calls now cost more than puts through the October expiry, and Bitcoin's implied volatility has climbed from the fourth percentile of its trailing twelve months on Aug. 17 to the 56th percentile today.
BTC level / zone Market structure Signal if tested $81,000–$86,000 Cost-basis supply, seller asks, gamma positioning, remaining short-liquidation levels Main resistance and absorption zone. $82,300 Dealer gamma flip Could amplify or dampen moves depending on positioning. $83,300 Glassnode breakout confirmation level Settled closes above here support the bull case. $95,000–$100,000 Stretch upside target zone Becomes plausible if ETF demand persists and $86K is cleared. ~$70,000 Short-term-holder cost basis First major downside warning level. $62,000–$65,000 Deeper support floor Bear-case test if ETF demand fades. ~$62,900 Original squeeze level Retest would largely unwind the rally episode. $6.44B Friday options expiry Deribit BTC options deadline Near-term volatility catalyst testing both bull and bear cases. DWF Labs market insights lead Martin Lee noted:
“Traders are now paying for upside in the short term. An expected reading would allow optimism from last week to continue, and risk-on assets will maintain their momentum.”
The bull case has Bitcoin closing settled sessions above $83,300 while ETF inflows keep arriving and funding stays contained.
In the scenario, the $81,000 to $86,000 band stops acting as resistance and becomes supply the market has absorbed, opening the door to $95,000 to $100,000 as the next stretch targets.
The bear case has wallet-cohort accumulation losing breadth and ETF flows flipping toward outflows, pulling Bitcoin below its $70,000 short-term-holder cost basis.
Under that path, this stops looking like a cash-funded recovery and starts looking like delayed profit-taking, with the $62,000 to $65,000 floor as the next real test if the retreat continues.
If the buyers absorbing supply near $81,000 are real, they now have to prove it Friday against options expiry, Jackson Hole, and a $6.4 billion deadline all landing at once.
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