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CONCALLS: post #10164 — TG.ME

CONCALLS@Concalls3 · 10.1K subscribers Open in TelegramOpen

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September 7, 2026 878 5

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[media post] 230·Sep 8 FINEOTEX CHEMICAL | CRUDECHEM SCALE-UP + US OILFIELD CHEMICALS BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION - Fineotex operates across textile chemicals, cleaning & hygiene and oilfield chemicals, with manufacturing operations in India, Malaysia and the US. - The 53% CrudeChem acquisition in December 2025 has materially changed the business mix. - Oil & gas chemicals contributed ~65% of consolidated revenue and ~55% of volumes in Q1 FY27. - CrudeChem provides specialised, tailor-made chemistries for demanding oilfield applications rather than commodity products. MOAT & PRICING POWER - US oilfield chemical customers have long qualification cycles; new products and personnel can take up to 2 years to qualify with customers such as Shell, ExxonMobil and Halliburton. - CrudeChem's Trackmax logistics arm provides integrated last-mile delivery, an important capability because oil production cannot simply stop once a well is operating. - Solutions are customised, supporting better pricing power than commodity chemicals. - Raw-material increases can be passed through via separate war and fuel surcharges. - More than 100 product categories diversify the portfolio. MARGIN TRANSITION - Consolidated EBITDA margin was 15.7% in Q1 FY27. - Consolidation of CrudeChem has temporarily diluted Fineotex's historical standalone textile EBITDA margins of ~18–28%. - CrudeChem currently operates at ~13–14% EBITDA margins, with management targeting ~15%. - Successful integration and operating leverage could lift consolidated EBITDA margins toward 18–20%. - The key margin opportunity is converting CrudeChem from a lower-margin, undercapitalised business into a more efficient integrated platform. US OILFIELD — BIGGEST GROWTH ENGINE - Management has accelerated the $200 Mn oilfield revenue target from 2030 to FY28. - Texas facility has 148,000 MTPA capacity and was operating at ~63% utilisation in Q1 FY27 on a single shift. - Running double shifts could potentially increase utilisation by another 30–40% without significant new capex. - Fineotex plans to cross-sell its technologies through CrudeChem's existing customer network. - By FY28, oil & gas is expected to become the dominant business. FY28–FY30 AMBITION - Management sees potential for 3x–4x top-line growth toward ~₹3,000 Cr. - Growth would be driven by Texas capacity utilisation, CrudeChem scale-up, cross-selling and margin improvement. - Legacy textile chemicals could also recover as zero-duty access to the UK/EU supports Indian textile exports. - Fineotex intends to increase its CrudeChem ownership from 53% to ~79–80% by January 2028. CAPEX & BALANCE SHEET - Fineotex invested ~$7 Mn in machinery after completing the CrudeChem acquisition. - Additional expansion capex over the next two years is expected at ~₹70–80 Cr. - Company remains debt-free, with >₹340 Cr cash as of Q3 FY26. - Growth is being funded through internal accruals and warrant conversions, including ₹35.68 Cr raised through warrants. - Capital allocation remains relatively conservative despite the aggressive growth strategy. KEY RISKS / FALSIFIERS - The biggest risk is execution of the rapid US scale-up. - CrudeChem must reach the $200 Mn FY28 revenue target while improving EBITDA margin from ~13–14% toward ~15%. - Rapid growth could increase working-capital requirements; maintaining the current ~72-day cycle is important. - US operations already contribute ~65% of consolidated revenue, increasing exposure to regional weather disruptions and oilfield demand cycles. - The ambitious 3x–4x revenue target depends heavily on successfully utilising the expanded Texas capacity. - If CrudeChem margins remain structurally low, consolidated margin expansion toward 18–20% could be difficult. KEY TAKEAWAY - CrudeChem + Texas capacity utilisation + margin expansion could transform Fineotex into a ₹3,000 Cr global specialty-chemicals platform, but US execution is the key risk. Stock Fundamental in detail @Fundamental3 1.9K·Sep 5 MAHARASHTRA SEAMLESS | CAPACITY EXPANSION + PREMIUM PIPE MIX BUSINESS & MOAT - India's leading manufacturer of seamless and ERW steel pipes, with oil & gas contributing ~70% of dispatches. - Market leader for ~35 years; domestic peers have largely gone through bankruptcy or restructuring. - High entry barriers from API certifications, long customer qualification cycles and established PSU relationships. - ONGC and Oil India account for ~42% of the order book. - Full product basket includes value-added cold drawn, drill and sour service pipes. - Japanese licensing agreement for premium connections adds another qualification barrier. - Anti-dumping duties provide some protection against Chinese imports. CAPACITY & UTILISATION - Active capacity stands at 5.5 lakh tons, with another 1 lakh tons of dormant capacity. - Telangana finishing line is expected to unlock the 1 lakh ton dormant capacity, taking total capacity to 6.5 lakh tons. - Cold drawn pipes are already operational with two draw benches. - Premium connections production is expected to start within six months from February 2026. - By mid-2028, utilisation could reach 80–85%, with annual dispatches of 4.5–5 lakh tons versus 4.12 lakh tons in FY26. MARGIN & PRODUCT MIX - EBITDA/ton has historically ranged between ₹8,000–15,000. - Q1 FY27 EBITDA/ton reached ₹15,600, supported by favourable product mix. - Premium connections and cold drawn products should improve the mix and support ₹12,000–15,000 EBITDA/ton. - At 4.5 lakh tons dispatches and ₹12,000–15,000 EBITDA/ton, EBITDA could potentially exceed ₹1,000 Cr by FY28 versus ~₹700 Cr in FY26. ORDER BOOK & DEMAND - Order book increased from ₹1,149 Cr in June 2025 to ₹1,709 Cr in August 2026. - Oil-sector orders account for ~42% of the order book. - Exports increased sharply to 22% of Q1 FY27 dispatches versus <10% in FY26. - Revival in oil & gas capex and PSU tender activity remains important for volume growth. - Management is conserving cash for potential distressed acquisitions, although no deal has been announced. FINANCIAL STRENGTH - Treasury/cash and investments stand at ~₹3,115 Cr, providing significant financial flexibility. - Company maintains a dividend policy while retaining substantial liquidity. - Strong balance sheet provides optionality for acquisitions and capacity investments. EXECUTION — WHAT TO WATCH - Telangana finishing line timeline has slipped from December 2025 to March 2026. - Hot-mill upgrade has not yet started. - Management has generally delivered near-term volume/earnings guidance, but project delays remain a monitorable. - The key near-term trigger is commissioning and ramp-up of the additional 1 lakh ton capacity. KEY RISKS - Anti-dumping duty is a major monitorable: current protection is expected to expire in October 2026, with a temporary extension to January 2027. - If duties are not renewed or strengthened, Chinese imports could pressure domestic prices and margins. - Delayed oil & gas capex or PSU tenders could slow volume growth. - Further delay in Telangana capacity could cap dispatch growth. - EBITDA/ton is cyclical and dependent on product mix and steel-price environment. KEY TAKEAWAY - ₹3,115 Cr treasury + 1 lakh ton capacity unlock + premium products could drive EBITDA toward ₹1,000 Cr by FY28, with anti-dumping policy and Telangana execution the key watchpoints. 1.5K·Sep 5 EXICOM TELE-SYSTEMS | TRITIUM TURNAROUND + CRITICAL POWER SCALE-UP BUSINESS & MOAT - Exicom operates across two key businesses: Critical Power systems for telecom sites and EV charging hardware through India operations + US subsidiary Tritium. - Critical Power contributed ₹177 Cr in Q1 FY27, +73% YoY, while standalone EV charging revenue was ₹61 Cr, +15% YoY. - Exicom has >50% share in India's wallbox charger market and ~60% share in the BharatNet government fibre project. - Deep qualification cycles and switching costs support the moat; telecom customers have worked with Exicom for ~30 years. - Consolidated order book stood at ₹1,400 Cr as of June 30, 2026. INDIA BUSINESS — STRONGER GROWTH - Standalone Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹234 Cr, +58% YoY, with EBITDA of ₹16 Cr. - Standalone EBITDA margin improved to 8.8% from 5.8% YoY; gross margin was 29.1%. - Hyderabad plant became fully operational in Q4 FY26 and triples production capacity. - Production is shifting from Gurgaon to Hyderabad over the next 2–3 months, eliminating ₹8.7 Cr of annualised parallel-run fixed costs. - Critical Power exports expected to rise from ~8% of sales in Q1 FY27 to ~15% by FY27-end. - BESS is expected to scale from near-zero to ~₹50 Cr revenue in FY27, supported by 15 MWh orders already won. - India business could compound at 20–30%, supported by telecom tower additions and EV penetration. TRITIUM — THE BIG TURNAROUND DRIVER - Consolidated EBITDA turned positive in Q4 FY26 for the first time since Tritium acquisition. - Tritium is targeting 3x revenue growth in FY27 and EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY27. - Q1 FY27 Tritium bookings reached $20.8 Mn, around 2x the previous quarterly average; backlog was ~$20 Mn as of July 1. - Q1 FY27 Tritium revenue was ~$10.5 Mn; 3x FY27 growth implies roughly $120 Mn annualised revenue. - TRI-FLEX and other new products are under trials with Fortune 100 companies. - A successful hyperscaler qualification could create a $30–35 Mn FY28 revenue opportunity per product. - A $30 Mn firm Fortune 50 purchase order has already been secured, with deliveries beginning January 2026; a second ~$30 Mn annual RFP is advanced. - If product trials convert, FY28 Tritium revenue could potentially exceed $150 Mn. COST & MARGIN INFLECTION - Hyderabad consolidation should remove parallel-run costs and improve fixed-cost absorption. - Consolidated EBITDA breakeven is expected in Q2/Q3 FY27, while Tritium targets breakeven in Q4 FY27. - By mid-2028, management expects Hyderabad to be fully loaded, Tritium to reach triple-digit-million-dollar revenue and consolidated EBITDA margins to reach high-single digits or better. - If Tritium executes as guided, consolidated EBITDA could potentially reach ₹100–150 Cr by FY28. - FY26 VRS and retention costs were largely one-offs, while current PAT losses reflect fixed-cost absorption during the scale-up phase. ORDER BOOK & GROWTH VISIBILITY - Consolidated order book has reached ₹1,400 Cr. - Tritium bookings are accelerating, providing an important leading indicator for the turnaround. - New product launches during May–July 2026 create additional FY28 upside if customer qualifications convert. - Completed Hyderabad capex provides capacity for the next phase without requiring fresh equity dilution. MANAGEMENT EXECUTION — MIXED RECORD - Management had earlier guided 50% standalone revenue growth for FY26 but delivered only 19%. - Hyderabad plant commissioning slipped from October 2025 to March 2026. - However, consolidated EBITDA breakeven was achieved in Q4 FY26, reportedly a year ahead of the original Tritium timeline. - August 2026 management commentary reiterated consolidated EBITDA breakeven in Q2/Q3 FY27 and Tritium breakeven in Q4 FY27. KEY RISKS / KILL SHOT - The biggest risk is Tritium customer qualification and product-trial conversion. - Failure of hyperscaler trials or delays in new product launches could derail the 3x Tritium growth and Q4 FY27 breakeven targets. - Semiconductor and copper supply-chain volatility remains a risk. - Working capital could rise sharply through inventory and receivables. - Consolidated debt is ~₹370 Cr, so execution must translate into EBITDA and cash-flow improvement. - The key quarterly monitorable is Tritium bookings and progress toward the Q4 FY27 breakeven commitment. KEY TAKEAWAY - Tritium qualification + 3x revenue growth + Hyderabad scale-up could transform Exicom into a high-growth, profitable EV/critical-power platform. 5.4K·Sep 5

[media post] 1.3K·Sep 5

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