Japan's bond market, the world's 3rd largest, is BREAKING:The 10-year JGB yield rose as much as +6 basis points to 2.93% on Monday, the highest level since 1996.
At the same time, the 30-year yield climbed +7 basis points to 4.08%, nearing its record high from May, while the 20-year yield jumped +7 basis points to 3.815%.
This comes as a weakening Yen and rising oil prices are fueling inflation expectations, with markets now pricing an ~80% chance of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in September.
Meanwhile, 3% for the 10-year JGB is a critical level for Japanese fiscal credibility, since it is the interest rate assumed in the government's own budget, meaning a breach would signal a rate rise the government itself did not anticipate.
Complicating the BOJ's decision, Japan's Q2 GDP grew just +1.1% annualized, well below the +2% expected by economists, as private consumption and CapEx both declined.
Fiscal concerns are adding further pressure, with the government yet to clarify how it will fund a planned 2-year cut to the sales tax on food.
Japan's bond market is starting to price in the cost of fiscal excess.
Global Markets Investor
