The EU's planned ban on the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2035 would cause the disappearance of 726k jobs across the EUThe study focuses on the question of how different regulatory models for the powertrain affect production, value creation and jobs. The result is clear from the point of view of the authors. Even with an easing of the previous EU plans, the economic burdens would decrease only slightly.
The short study is from the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering and Organization (IAO). The clients are Gesamtmetall, Südwestmetall and several Bavarian employers’ associations. The project partners include BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Bosch, Mahle, Schaeffler and ZF.
The calculations for Germany are particularly clear. Due to their strong focus on the development and production of classic drive technology, the authors see the Federal Republic of Germany as one of the biggest losers of the transformation.
In the area of the powertrain, the value added according to the calculations could decline by 54.2 billion euros or 64 percent by the year 2040. This would hit Germany above average within Europe.
The projected losses on suppliers are even greater. For this area, the study expects a decline in value added of around 35 billion euros or 80 percent. Especially manufacturers of engines, transmissions, injection systems or exhaust technology could be affected if the demand for classic combustion engine components continues to decline – this is also evident in the utilisation of the German car plants.
In addition to value added, the study also examines employment in the field of powertrain production. The starting point is around 1.6 million employees in Europe in 2025. Depending on the scenario, this number will fall significantly in the coming years.
Another result of the investigation is striking. Both the current EU regulation with the de facto end of new combustion vehicles from 2035 and the compromise proposed by the EU Commission almost lead to identical employment effects in the model. The relaxations of the so-called "Automotive Package" would therefore hardly change the job cuts.
According to the calculations of the study, the new value-added areas of electromobility cannot compensate for the losses in the internal combustion engine. In the scenario of the EU Commission proposal, around 113 billion euros of value added will be lost in the combustion engine sector by 2040, while only 18 billion euros will be created for electric drives.
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/verkehr/verbrenner-aus-kostet-milliarden-so-hart-triff-es-die-deutsche-auto-industrie/
