Summary: El Niño 2026 May Intensify, WMO Warns of Impacts 📅 WMO… — čHãņĐŪStudyWorld — TG.ME

Summary: El Niño 2026 May Intensify, WMO Warns of Impacts 📅 WMO Update: 2026 🌊 Climate Phenomenon: El Niño 📈 Forecast: Near-100% chance of continuation through February 2027 🌡️ Peak: Expected towards the end of 2026 🏢 Organisation: World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) 🇮🇳 Key Concern for India: Rainfall and temperature extremes 🌊 Possible Relief: Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Key Development ◉ The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast a near-100% probability of El Niño continuing through February 2027. ◉ Warm conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate that the event may strengthen in the coming months. ◉ The peak intensity is expected towards the end of 2026. ◉ WMO and national meteorological services have emphasized the importance of early warning systems to reduce potential impacts. El Niño Conditions in the Pacific ◉ The equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean is experiencing significant above-normal temperatures. ◉ The Niño 3.4 index increased from +1.5°C (May-July 2026 average) to +2.0°C in July 2026. ◉ Weekly values later reached around +2.2°C to +2.6°C above normal. ◉ Subsurface waters in parts of the Pacific were reported to be more than 8°C above average during July and early August. Impact of El Niño on India ◉ El Niño is a major natural climate driver that can significantly influence global weather patterns. ◉ In India, El Niño is generally associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall and warmer conditions, although its actual impact depends on other atmospheric and oceanic factors. ◉ A strong El Niño could create challenges for: → Agriculture → Water resources → Temperature and heat management → Disaster preparedness Positive IOD May Provide Some Relief ◉ The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to move into a positive phase. ◉ The September-October-November 2026 seasonal mean IOD is forecast at approximately +0.9°C. ◉ A positive IOD can potentially offset some of the negative rainfall effects of El Niño over India. ◉ However, it may not completely eliminate the risks associated with a strong El Niño event. Important Points → Organisation → World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) → Climate Phenomenon → El Niño → Expected Continuation → Through February 2027 → Probability → Near 100% → Expected Peak → End of 2026 → Key Pacific Indicator → Niño 3.4 Index → Niño 3.4 → +2.0°C in July 2026 → Later Weekly Range → +2.2°C to +2.6°C → Subsurface Pacific Anomaly → Above +8°C in some areas → India Impact → Potential below-normal rainfall and warmer conditions → Supporting Climate Factor → Positive IOD → Forecast IOD (SON 2026) → About +0.9°C → Key Mitigation Measure → Early Warning Systems Quick Facts 🌊 El Niño → Warming of the tropical Pacific 🌡️ 2026 Peak → Expected towards year-end 📅 Continuation → February 2027 🇮🇳 India Risk → Rainfall and temperature extremes 🌊 IOD → Positive phase forecast 📊 Niño 3.4 → +2.0°C in July ⚠️ Priority → Early warning and preparedness Significance ✅ A prolonged and potentially intense El Niño could influence weather patterns across several regions, including India. ✅ Its possible effects on rainfall, agriculture and water resources make the WMO forecast important for policymakers and disaster-management agencies. ✅ The expected positive IOD may provide some moderation to El Niño's rainfall impact over India. ✅ Early warning systems can help governments and communities prepare for potential weather extremes. 💡 Final Takeaway WMO has forecast a near-100% chance of El Niño continuing through February 2027, with the phenomenon potentially reaching its peak towards the end of 2026. For India, El Niño may increase the risk of below-normal rainfall and warmer conditions, while a positive IOD of around +0.9°C could provide some relief.