MARKET UPDATE BTC is pushing into the high 63s this morning after trading near 62.7k overnight. Itās up roughly 1% today and is testing 64k again.
Stocks are slightly red, with the Dow down around 0.3%, the S&P 500 off 0.1%, and the Nasdaq roughly flat. Strength in chip stocks is helping tech, but renewed U.S.-Iran tensions are keeping the broader market cautious.
This morningās data was mixed. New York manufacturing jumped to 20.6, its strongest reading in more than four years, but input costs also accelerated. Homebuilder confidence improved slightly to 35 but remains historically weak.
Markets are still pricing in roughly a 69% chance that the Fed holds rates in September. Wednesdayās Fed minutes should show how seriously officials were considering another hike before the recent weak jobs and inflation reports.
Oil remains the biggest risk. Brent is back near $89 as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited, while the 10-year yield is around 4.7%. Another major oil spike could quickly bring inflation fears back.
ETF demand also needs to improve. Bitcoin funds lost roughly $385M last week, including another $56M on Friday. We wonāt have todayās final flow numbers until after the close.
For BTC, 64k is the immediate test. Clear it and 65-65.5k comes back into play. Get rejected again and 63k is the first support, followed by 62k.
BTC is showing a little strength today, but breaking 64k is what would turn this from another bounce into something worth getting excited about
As always DYOR (Disclaimer)
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