India to Import ~1 Million Tonnes of Raw Sugar Duty-Free After 10 Years as Domestic Prices Hit ₹5,400-5,560/Quintal Amid Bone-Dry Pipeline Stocks
The Crisis — What's Happening
India set to import ~1 million tonnes (mt) of raw sugar at nil duty after a gap of almost 10 years
Benchmark ex-mill price in Maharashtra hit ₹5,400–5,560 per quintal
Steep price rise since March 2026 — just as country enters high-consumption festival period
Root Cause — Stock Depletion
Bone-dry pipeline stocks with mills
Consumption exceeded production in the 2025-26 season that started October 1, 2025
Situation attributed partly to faulty production estimates that gave false confidence
The Export Misstep — "Export Push Turns Sour"
November 2025: Centre first permitted exports of 1.5 mt of sugar
Later raised to 2 mt
Around 0.8 mt already shipped out before exports were prohibited
This is almost exactly the same quantity India now plans to import as raw sugar
Senior industry executive: "Someone was misleading the system into believing sugar fundamentals were strong, while production was not making up for consumption"
Ex-Mill Price Trajectory in Maharashtra (₹/quintal)
March: ₹3,650
April: ₹3,750
May: ₹3,800
June: ₹4,300
July: ₹4,800
August: ₹5,400
Ex-mill prices increased steadily from ₹3,650/quintal in March 2026 to ₹5,400/quintal in August 2026
Policy Response
Nil duty imports to cool down domestic prices
Mills to be permitted to import raw sugar
Timing critical — festival season demand surge imminent
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