We are sitting right at the edge.
For #Oil to break $100, we probably need a spark.
But if it breaks $100 and holds, I think $110+ comes back into play very quickly.
Here’s what I’m watching 👇
1️⃣ $100 is a psychological level for Trump
I've said this before:
Every time #Oil gets close to $100, Trump starts talking about a PEACE DEAL.
And now look at the timing.
We had unannounced visits by Qataris to Iran + several calls yesterday.
Coincidence?
Maybe.
But I'm watching it.
2️⃣ The US media narrative is changing
Have you noticed how much less coverage there is around the war on many major US news broadcasts?
Why?
My guess: the midterms.
The administration needs the narrative to be:
Everything is under control.
The economy is fine.
Energy is stable.
And Trump's claim about 10M+ barrels of oil per day moving through Hormuz fits perfectly into that narrative.
Personally, I don't buy that number.
3️⃣ The physical oil data matters
You can't magically move millions of barrels of oil every day without leaving a footprint.
Ships.
Ports.
Exports.
Imports.
Destination data.
Source data.
Eventually, the physical flows have to show up somewhere.
And this is where things get VERY interesting.
⚠️ My biggest theory
I think Iran may be preparing for a very risky gamble.
They know higher gasoline prices + higher #Oil prices could become a serious political problem for Trump going into the midterms.
So what if Iran decides to let this conflict burn hotter for another 2–3 weeks?
What if they deliberately push #Oil toward $110–120 before the election really gets underway?
If that's the plan, it's a VERY bold move.
Because Iran knows exactly what it risks.
But they also know what higher energy prices could do politically.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
A peace deal could happen instead.
And if it does, Trump could potentially turn that into a major political win — especially in the Senate.
So right now, I'm watching two scenarios:
🟥 Conflict escalates → $110–120 #Oil
🟩 Peace deal → #Oil sells off + Trump gets a political win
And finally...
P.S.
I still don't believe the +160K jobs number is completely accurate.
If you know, you know. 👀
