โ New research suggests more than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded using inside information about U.S. military operations, Reuters reports.The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 highly successful wallets betting on military and defense events, collectively earning about $8 million with an average win rate of 97.2%.
Some suspicious wagers were placed shortly before U.S. military actions, including strikes involving Iran, and were subsequently copied by large traders and automated bots. Researchers warn that because Polymarket transactions are publicly visible, such activity could inadvertently signal sensitive information to foreign intelligence services.
The findings do not prove insider trading, and researchers acknowledge that luck or other explanations are possible. However, they have intensified concerns about national security risks and calls for tighter oversight of prediction markets.
