April was more so a show of force than a committed attack, similar to the attack against US forces in Iraq after Soleimani was killed. Iran has the capability to conduct precise strikes, meaning they can hit a base, but purposely not hit anything that would cause escalation. This could be same case, but we will have to wait and see.
The way I saw April was like this:
- Israel kills IRGC leadership
- Iran responds with missile
and drone attack that essentially had zero impact against Israeli operational capabilities. The attack was a grand show and could be presented as a successful retaliatory attack.
- Israel responds by striking ADA systems in Iran, which did not have any impact on Iran military capabilities. For Israel, this could be presented as a successful response to Iran’s attack. Iran swept it under the rug as if nothing happened, thus preventing near term escalation.
Could we see a repeat? Does nothing ever happen?
36
9
1October 1, 2024 14.9K 6 6
