The Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes revealed that participants unanimously agreed there was little evidence that inflationary pressures were abating and that it would take a considerable amount of time to resolve the issue. Following the release of these minutes, US stocks quickly fell, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in September dropped to 64.5%, while the probability of a 75 basis point hike rose to 35.5%. The key focus going forward will be on the August and September CPI data. If these figures show improvement, risk markets will rebound significantly; otherwise, they will remain sluggish, weakening expectations of a slower rate hike. During this period of stability, we need to pay closer attention to the prices of various core US commodities to anticipate whether inflation can gradually slow down. Judging from these Fed meeting minutes, the future remains uncertain, and the market outlook for the second half of the year is even more unpredictable.
2July 31, 2026 327
