Still haven’t bought back in.
I still believe we go lower.
Why:
Almost everyone and their mother thinks the bottom is already in and that the 4-year cycle won’t play out. Same thing happened near the top when people faded the cycle. Fading something that’s never really failed is pretty stupid.
Dr Profit has basically become the new capo of Crypto Twitter. Everyone follows him now - retail and KOLs alike. Either he’s gotten too big to be right, or he’s been bought by the matrix. His calls trend across X and everyone piles in. That alone makes me skeptical. Buying between 54k–64k will probably still look good if the real bottom ends up around 40k–50k, but you get the point.
I think there are now more people convinced the bottom is in than people expecting another leg down / the four year cycle to play out. That’s the perfect setup to trap everyone into longs and then dump the market 30–50%.Overall, buying here makes sense if you’re a pussy and just want to play it safe. Personally, I don’t see a single reason to do it.
As for who I’m following out of the ones I mentioned earlier, Dr Profit and Killa have both turned into pussies this cycle. Benjamin is still sticking to the original plan, so he’s the one I’m following.
That said, I’m not married to my bias. If we’re in late September or around October and we still haven’t dropped much - or we’ve gone even higher - I’ll admit I was wrong and buy higher.
I’d be pretty surprised, though. If we’ve already bottomed, this might be the first cycle where retail and almost all of Crypto Twitter actually called the bottom…
