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Shadow’s Lab 🧪: post #435 — TG.ME

Shadow’s Lab 🧪@ShadowPNL · 698 subscribers Open in TelegramOpen

t.me/ShadowPNL/435

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November 4, 2025 279 1

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Since even if BTC bottom isn’t in, what if ETH is? Just like previous cycle I believe ETH bottomed in June, months before BTC. ETH is on steroids rn lmao and ETH/BTC chart looks too bullish I guess we’ll see 58·Aug 20 Tbh, this is the most scared I’ve been the entire bear market. Looking back, I really wish I had just gone all in at $1,500. The downside was limited. I was too busy drinking Spanish lattes smh 🤦🏻‍♂️ 71·Aug 20 My brain keeps telling me: “Ain’t no way they give us one final low. Impossible. Everyone feeling FOMO right now or regretting not buying earlier will just buy it. They won’t give us that chance.” Market isn’t nice to people and I need to trade the market I have, not what I want. But I’ve literally witnessed this same feeling before. When ETH hit $4,800 and dropped to ~$4,070, I thought the exact same thing: “There’s zero chance they send it back up. Everyone who missed the top will get another chance to sell.” So I thought I missed out on the top and I’m cooked. Instead, ETH gave people chance after chance: $4,800 → $4,070 → $4,970 → $4,200 → $4,750 → $3,856 → $4,760. My emotional assumption was completely wrong. The market CAN give people multiple chances. That’s why I’m reconsidering this. I still think where we are now makes sense as a local top IF we’re actually going to get a new low. But if we push higher from here, even a little, I think I have to accept I missed the bottom and just buy in on the next higher low. Would suck, but it is what it is. You live and you learn. 77·Aug 20 COLD WALLET ILLUSION 😈 Never talk about security, but this one might save someone from a lot of pain. Cold wallets aren’t as safe as people think. Imagine not touching your hardware wallet for months, then checking it and it’s just empty. No warning. No clue how. It’s even happened to people using Ledger, Trezor, the “trusted” ones. Seed compromise, supply chain attack, someone getting physical access, a dumb mistake. Half the time you never even find out which. That’s the part that gets me. Not the hack. The not knowing. And even with a perfect seed, you’re still one wrong address or one bad actor away from losing everything. 🧃 MY TAKE: If you just want BTC or ETH exposure long term, why take on all that risk? That’s why I stepped back from believing hardware wallets completely. Now I advise you just hold the BlackRock ETF for BTC or ETH via your bank. No seed to lose, no address to screw up, no device to compromise, no thief showing up at your door to kidnap or extort you. Blackrock isn’t going anywhere. Do this, sleep peacefully at night… 276·Aug 11 The time we are in currently reminds me of the top… Back then, everyone on X had a million reasons why we had to go higher. Eventually your brain just accepted it as fact because it was the overwhelming consensus. Now it’s the exact same thing, except the consensus is that the bottom is already in. Everyone has a different reason, but they’re all reaching the same conclusion. It also adds to my point about Dr Profit. Near the top, he was an outlier calling for the top while the majority disagreed. This time, he’s with the majority calling the bottom. He’s no longer the contrarian he was before, which is why I think he’s either become too big to be right or got bought by the matrix. 165·Jul 28

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