Fundamental Overview
The US Central Command said Thursday that US forces targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for launching attacks against warships transiting through the strategic waterway. Earlier, Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire by striking multiple targets in and around the strait. However, US President Donald Trump stated that a ceasefire with Iran is still in place and added that it would be obvious if the ceasefire was over. Moreover, the US military stated that US forces do not seek escalation, undermining the USD's reserve currency status and supporting the Gold price.
Meanwhile, the latest development fails to assist Crude Oil prices to capitalize on Thursday's goodish intraday move up, though the downside seems cushioned amid geopolitical uncertainties. In fact, Trump warned that US forces will hit a lot harder and more violently if Iran doesn’t sign a deal soon. Moreover, continued economic growth and inflation fears have forced investors to push back their expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed to late 2027 or early 2028. This, in turn, should limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the Gold as traders keenly await the US monthly employment details.
The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is due for release later during the early North American session and is expected to show that the economy added 62K new jobs in April. This would mark a significant slowdown from the previous month's reading of 178K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings might have risen by 3.8% YoY in April. Nevertheless, the data will further play a role in influencing expectations about the Fed's policy stance, which, in turn, will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the Gold price
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