📊 September hike odds: 58%, not 90%
Markets see only 58% odds despite Warsh's hawkish speech. That gap matters because a single voice isn't the committee — mispricing the Fed path hits yields and equities.
🔹 Warsh's tough talk rattled headlines, but the Fed stays data-driven, keeping odds near 58%.
🔹 For markets, taper-tantrum fears fade. Bonds may ease and stocks hold if inflation stays cool.
🔹 Don't rebuild portfolios on one speech. Core inflation and jobs decide September.
🔹 Watch next PCE and moderate Fed voices. Sub-50% kills the hike story; above 70% revives it.
💡 Base case is still a hike, so hedge but don't panic — markets over-priced the fear.
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