The unilateral US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the historic nuclear deal between the permanent members of the UN Security Council, E.U. (P5+1) and Iran, which limited Iran’s nuclear programme and lifted the crippling economic sanctions, will have serious ramifications for nations having strategic interests in the West Asia.
India’s relations with Iran extend beyond the geopolitical and geo-economic binary. The cultural relations between India and Iran extend centuries, but the recent US behaviour has led India on crossroads. This controversy would affect India in following ways-
Strategic Autonomy - Strategic Autonomy has been the guiding principle of Indian foreign policy since independence. India maintains that it abides by only UN sanctions and not unilateral sanctions by any one country. In this case, US is coercing India and other countries to sever ties with Iran. This has direct implications on autonomous policy making.
Oil Supply - Iran has been one of the top three oil suppliers to India. Sanctions on Iran, which would be the next logical step by the Trump administration, will disrupt the crude oil supplies. US has presented India with shale imports, but the Gulf region has regional proximity to India. The withdrawal will also raise the crude oil prices, this fluctuation has a direct impact on the Indian economy (inflation, Balance of Payment, Current Account Deficit).
Indian Investments - India’s plans to acquire stakes in Iranian natural gas field, build pipelines as well as develop the Chabahar port – a key Indian connectivity initiative – all stand to be seriously affected.
Indian Diaspora - In case this spirals out into direct confrontation between US allies and Iran, then lives Indians living in the Gulf region would be at stake. Their protection and evacuation would be a huge diplomatic and military manoeuvre.
Terrorism - Instability in the region has already resulted in rise of extremist group and more uncertainty will only provide them with more safe havens. This might have a direct effect on India’s national security.
Other partners of the agreement are willing to move forward despite the US withdrawal. India is an important stakeholder in the issue. So, India should work with like minded countries to defuse the situation and if possible, bring US back to the table if not, then prepare a separate mechanism for dealing with Iran including other stakeholders.
India has always maintained that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved peacefully through dialogue and diplomacy by respecting Iran’s right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy international community’s strong interest in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme.
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