US 10-Year Yield Is Now Testing a Ceiling from 2023
The US 10-year yield is at 4.684, creeping higher as traders wait on Warsh at Jackson Hole this morning.
Yields broke out of the war-start zone near 3.80 to 4.00 and climbed the trendline the entire way, right into the resistance that has capped them since 2023. We are testing that level now.
Yields rose after the July meeting because Warsh was seen as not offering enough concrete steps on inflation. He is running a divided Fed. He has said 2% is his firm target, no question about it, and several officials share the inflation concern.
As for today, Warsh prefers less forward guidance, so this may not deliver much volatility. He is not going to foreshadow September. And as long as oil prices remain tamed, there's really no urgency to hike.
Hike odds are 35% for September, 75% by December. PCE held at 3.7%, above target for the 65th straight month.
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— Alan
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9August 28, 2026 3K 5
